Inflation has been getting lots of attention recently. For example, do a Google News search terms such as "increasing inflation," "inflationary pressures" or "rising food prices, and you'll find almost 3000 s each. Interestingly, you'll get about the same number of results for the word "deflation."
According to the latest WSJ economic forecasting survey, the consent of more than 50 economists and analysts is that CPI inflation will be 2.1% in December 2011. But with all the talk recently about the increasing food and commodity prices, there are many guests on CNBC, Bloomberg, and FOX Business News, who believe that inflationary pressures push the much bigger than 2,1% until the end of the year.
With all the incredible difference of opinion about future inflation, it seemed natural to Intrade to introduce inflation futures, and this is exactly what happened just after my suggestion to them. Here is the link to the six new futures contracts that allow you to take a position on the inflation rate u.s. December 2011, based on the 12-month percentage change in the CPI-u.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Intrade introduces inflation futures
The return of budget Busters
Now becomes serious. House Speaker John Boehner warns that it will not be disconnected for a short-term costs extension to keep the deficit-laden federal government operation. ' Read my lips, "she says. "We are going to cut spending." the revelation of the budget is here.
The current authority for expenditure which runs through March 4. Between now and then, Congress would cut spending either on a temporary measure to keep the Government running. Perhaps a bit of both. In addition to a sustainable outcome, however, a shutdown looms.
This is unlikely, but the odds are not zero either. Let's call this the risk of courageous. Helps the calendar is either. As Jaime Dupree notes,
Court is off next week, so while the House approves a budget gap (billion in budget cuts), the Senate won't be back until the week of 28 February, to deal with it.
and now, not even the first item on the agenda for 28.
"the Senate adjourned until 28, where we will pay up to ... Patents Bill, "tweeted a bemused Don Stewart, a spokesman for Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
Paul Krugman charges all the talk about the budget debate is actually "cheating," Affirming that,
House Republicans are talking big cuts but to focus solely on the same small budget sliver [nonsecurity-discretionary spending].
And sharp cuts, proposing immediately simply won't Republicans where money is going where it is not spending money while Severing. economy continues to be a deep depression is a recipe for slowing economic growth, which means lower tax revenues, that any deficit reduction from G.O.P. cuts will at least partly offset by lower revenues.
the entire debate on the budget, then, is a farce.
Krugman argues that "If you're serious about the deficit, should be willing to consider closing at least part of this gap with higher taxes." in theory, Yes. But it opens the door to the old debate about whether we are in this mess because taxes are too low, or costs are too high. I am not going to resolve this issue here, but a little perspective never hurts. Here is the tax Rorsach for day of the graph from the historic tax brackets.
Finally, the Government can set two levers: revenue and expenditure. The details are cluttered, but it is a minefield, once the dust clears policy. With this in mind, one more chart to chew. The annual change in the current Federal recoveries (blue line) vs. current expenditure (red line) seasonally adjusted terms recently moved into something approximating an encouraging State. Yes, this is a drop in the ocean of the deficit forecasts. But at least there is a hope that if the Government can restrain the increase of expenditure--a massive if--the ability for some progress in budgetary matters is doomed.
Regardless of what happens, the Government's fiscal house in order is going to be painful and the problems of willl red ink is with us for years. The real issue to decide how to dig ourselves out of the hole without shooting ourselves in the foot in the head. Reduction of the budget during the development of employment is weak, but it carries a risk too do increase taxes. The numbers show that some of the two will be necessary to make substantial progress on the deficit. Everyone knows this. The question is how that reality will reveal itself to the actual legislative changes.
Silver SLV erupted yesterday
While gold is just a laggard, silver has been broken for the yearly highs (and lows that each year as well-don't quote me). Search trend traffickers as I pile here, now that it will be a "double top breakout".
I use the ETF charting purposes and not for the metal itself ....
Back to top
you are here: home > articles > collections > erupted yesterday silver stock (SLV)
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Dollar fails to gain traction against the euro
EUR/USD
The dollar failed to gain any traction during the last 24 hours and a weak constant lows just beyond 1.3620 vis-à-vis the euro. There was a spike in distaste risk during the Thursday with fresh reports that will move the Iranian warships through the Suez Canal and further political demonstrations in North Africa and the Middle East. The dollar once again failed to gain any benefit from a reduction of the risk appetite due partly to market optimism during outlook global growth.
Data of UNITED STATES registered jobless claims rise to 410,000 last week from a revised 385,000 previously, but the Philadelphia Fed index rose sharply in February from 35.9 to 19.3. Consumer price data was slightly stronger than expected with an increase of 0.4%, while the basic prices rose 0.2%. Inflation data will give some ammunition for the members of the Fed looking for early end, a further quantitative easing, but will still exist for expecting that a majority of the RANGE will continue to be bound to the current policy.
There was further speculation that Portugal will need the support of the euro area, within the next few weeks and was also heightened uncertainty over the banking sector. There were downgrades rating for regional German banks and there was also a sharp increase in temporary borrowing by the ECB. The impact will be limited if it was once, but the euro could be much more vulnerable if there is a constant increase of loans by the ECB.
The dollar was unable to provide any assistance in Asia on Friday and was trapped just beyond the level 1.36.
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket analysis software
Call now and you will be given free recent forecasts
Whereas precise up to 86% * 800-732-5407
If you have more recent forecasts sent to you, please go here
Yen
The dollar was able to carry out a further attack on the 84 level against the yen during the Thursday and highs near 20 83 crossing during the session of the United States. There was no decline in US yields had a negative impact on the dollar, although technical factors was a key influence.
Global equity markets has maintained a strong brand and broader demand contributed to curbing the Japanese currency. Will still return expectations of capital flows in the coming weeks, which should accompany the yen.
At meetings of the G20 will be monitored closely during the next two days and strong pressure for faster pace of China Yuan revaluation could have impacted on the strengthening of the yen against the dollar.
Sterling
Sterling found support under 1.61 against the dollar during the Thursday and advanced to a peak of just over 1.6723 with American currency came under greater pressure.
The latest survey of industrial CBI recorded improvements at-8 for January-16 last month and there was another very strong reading for prices.
Interest rate expectations remain inevitably a very important focus and MPC Member proposal has maintained his plea for stricter policy with comments that increases the number of rate required to bring inflation back under control and keep expectations in check. The minutes February MPC will be monitored very closely next week to see how close the Bank of England, which was an increase of rates and assess the potential schedule for any future increase.
The banking sector will continue to be monitored closely and there will be some fears that any move by a new Irish Government after 25 February general elections to force international banks to accept the debt would have negative consequences for the United Kingdom and the sterling.
Swiss franc
The dollar failed to break above 0.9620 in franc on Thursday and was subjected to renewed selling pressure in EMAS negotiation with a steep decline for testing support below 0.95. The euro weakened to a low near 1.29 vis-à-vis the Swiss currency as there was a spike in fresh fears about the situation in the Middle East. Safe-haven estimates they will remain very important for the franc.
Domestically, the ZEW confidence index improved slightly to business-17.2-18 2.4 above, but will continue to have trouble the competitive situation. Further strong franc gains will also renewed fears deflationary pressures and increasing pressure on the Central Bank.
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket analysis software
Call now and you will be given free recent forecasts
Whereas precise up to 86% * 800-732-5407
If you have more recent forecasts sent to you, please go here
Australian dollar
The Australian dollar held just below 1.0050 against the American currency during European trading Thursday and then transferred substantially higher in New York with high above 1.0120. There was a broader sales pressure on American currency and there was also support prices generally stable equity.
Underlying confidence in Australian dollar remains strong and there will be a further strong market support falls. However, there are also concerns over the domestic economy and the possibility of abrupt deceleration if the housing sector, which comes under pressure.
Rare StocksETFs who fell in the past six months aka 72 losers
If you are at least an average dart could've mad money blind folded in the past six months. With the S & P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 to between 30-35% in that time frame, which would have taken a very specialized skill set to pick losers, since Bernanke declared war on bears at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. But couldn't ... Here are the unsavory stocks/ETFs that may have embraced some unlucky souls, is missing from the party.
My goal is some swimming 2020 stocks/ETFs, with capitalization of over $ 300 M, the stock price of over $ 10, and at least 200,000 shares trading day. Whereas, only 3.5% of the market as a whole lost at least 5% ... 72 shame vectors. (to put it in perspective, the best 72 stocks/ETFs in the same time frame the experience between 113-400%)
Direxion daily small CAP bear 3 X SharesProShares FinancialsProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS crude UltraShort OilTextile footwear & apparel-PT AccessoriesHome INNS & Hotels Management Inc. Medical communications media & SuppliesNetworking & DevicesEaton FundPerusahaan Vance Municipal Bond (Persero) Perseroan 2DuPont iShares Barclays 20 + year Treas BondE-House (China) holdings LimitedLongtop economic LimitedCentral Media technology companies Ltd. Nordic American Tanker Shipping Ltd. Pollution & treatment ControlsPIMCO municipal income Fund IIWorld Wrestling Entertainment Inc. AllianceBernstein holding L.P.Nuveen premium income Municipal Fund Fabros technology, Inc. Medical instruments & SuppliesCentral European distribution Corp. Beverages-wineries & DistillersNuveen insured municipal opportunity FundInternet information ProvidersiShares Barclays 7-10 years TreasurySemiconductor equipment & materials
The right of the nation: what Government mostly cut checks to beneficiaries, 2.3T 2010
"National defense? Nope. Transportation? It is Not even close., the biggest single thing the Federal Government does these days is. .. choke controls. lots and lots and lots and lots of checks and switch to individual citizens--2.3 trillion dollars worth only last year. In fact, according to a table buried deep into historical tables volume a little-noticed the White House 2012 budget, these "direct payments to individuals" accounted for more than two thirds of Federal spending in 2010 (see chart above). This is a postwar high, and this share has been steadily climbing. Payments to individuals accounted for 2.4 percent of all federal spending in 1945. Since 1980 has been increased to 47% and in 1992 it crossed the 50 percent mark. (See chart above). where does all this money? More than half goes to seniors through social security and Medicare. Only approximately 38% goes to the poor. "And the remainder of the fee payments to farmers, students, unemployed, those seeking retraining assistance, veterans and other groups."And the largest of these direct payment programs--social security, Medicare and apply within--is also the fastest growing federal budget. "MP: the following chart shows a breakdown of the $ 2.3 trillion in payments to individuals by 2010 (from table 11.3) and shows that more than 68% of payments for social security and Medicare/apply within.
In article John, notes that at the same time paid to natural persons is increasing, both in absolute terms and as a share of total federal spending, "the Federal Government increasingly relies on fewer and fewer taxpayers to cover its costs." "When you put together these two trends, what you can find that the Federal Government has over the years is mainly triggered on a gigantic wealth-transfer computer--taking money from a shrinking pool of taxpayers and give to a growing list of preference groups.
Now, depending on your political perspective, one could view this is a good thing or a bad thing.
But whatever your view, this situation will download the federal budget under control more difficult, since it will always include pitting them writing checks against those cashing out. "
Back to top
you are here: home > articles > economy > right nation: what is Government? ...
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Judys TDSC, a collection, that shines on Thursday
Three charts tell the story
3. Figure 3: And rising share of taxes paid by the top 1% and the share of taxes paid by the bottom 95% going downwards.
As John Merline stresses the excellent syntax:
"When you put together these two trends, what you can find that the Federal Government has over the years is mainly triggered on a gigantic wealth-transfer machine--by taking money from a shrinking pool of taxpayers and give to a growing list of preference groups."
Back to top
you are here: home > articles > economy > three charts tell the story
The tax consequences of the recent Wisconsin policy measures
By the legislative fiscal Bureau, roughly comparable to the Congressional Budget Office evaluation (p.11) notes the tax consequences of revenue for the three accounts under the current Administration:
Our assessments include the impact of all the changes law enacted years ago and three January 2011 special session bills: SB 2 (a) SS, federalizes the treatment of health savings accounts. (b) SS AB 3, which will create an income and franchise tax deduction or credit to businesses that relocate to Wisconsin, and (c) SS AB 7, which could create an income and franchise tax rebate for businesses increased employment in that State. SS SB 2 was established by the law as 2011 practice 1. The other two bills have passed both chambers of the legislature and the Governor has indicated that it will sign them. It is estimated that, together, these three accounts will reduce General Fund tax collections by $ 50.0 million in 2011-12 and $ 62.0 million 2012-2013.
This means approximately 117.2 million dollars from any shortfall over the next two fiscal years is a direct consequence of the measures which are merely placed into effect by the current administration.
More about this from Forbes.
It is interesting to inspect the legislative fiscal Bureau Tabulation from the remainder of fiscal year 2010-11.
Source: legislative fiscal Office (Jan. 31, 2011).
Friday, February 25, 2011
Most important is the total volume of trade
"Politicians and commentators love to focus on the deficit, as if it were a scorecard of who wins the global trade, but the real measure is the total volume of trade. As economies develop, the trade, import and export. Exports help us to new markets and to develop economies of scale, while imports bless consumers with lower prices and more choices, while stoking competition, innovation and efficiency gains among producers. from this measure of BEA's recent trade report for December was good news around, and one more sign that the u.s. and global economies continue to recover from the great recession. Last year, U.S. exports of goods, which was 21 percent from 2008, while imports were 23 percent. In contrast, in the year of the recession of 2009, exports of goods decreased 18 percent from the year before while imports plunged 26%. (Unemployment increased in 2009, but hey, at least the u.s. trade deficit improve!) "MP: you've made this point before about the importance of adding exports and imports in total trade, see posts here and here. As shown in the above chart, top overall trade plummeted from 120 billion dollars due to global recession since mid-2008 to Summer 2009, and this was at a time when our monthly trade deficit "improvement" from the almost-70 billion dollars less than-30 billion dollars. Obviously, reducing the volume of total trade in 2008-2009 was a much better indicator of the economic conditions compounded by enhancing trade deficit. "
As Dan points out, when it comes to measurement of economic performance of the economy, the u.s., the most meaningful and relevant measure is "Total trade" and not the sense current "trade deficit" for goods and services (which is compensated by a surplus capital account). It is unfortunate that the total volume of international trade does not get more attention. Thank you Dan Griswold case.
Back to top
you are here: home > articles > economy > most important is the total volume of trade
Global warming Asset Allocation
If you believe that climate change is a real danger, your asset allocation should reflect your outlook, according to a new study by Mercer, the consulting company. There is no doubt that it will be a controversial recommendation from some quarters. Something related to climate change tends to stir debate on an item or for another, and so reviewing the matter concerning investment promises no less. Ready or not, it is time to examine the impact of climate change, for designing and managing portfolios, Mercer explains in "climate change scenarios for Strategic Asset Allocation"
The paper argues that climate change increases investment risk and asset allocation strategies must adapt accordingly. The uncertainty surrounding policy regulations and economic impact of climate change inspires "new approaches for building portfolios. The analysis is a joint effort Mercer and more than a dozen institutions, including the pension system in California public employees (CalPERS) and the international finance company.
Written for an audience with the institution, the report introduces a new framework for investment based on three key variables, which can be summarised as:
? Technology: the rate of growth and opportunities for investment in low carbon technologies
? Impact: to the extent that changes in the investment appeal of the natural environment
? Policy: the implied cost of carbon and emissions levels due to policy changes
These so-called variables TIP "could contribute and 10% in the overall portfolio risk," provides for the Mercer analysis. Even so, the equity risk premium expected to dominate most institutional portfolios. Mercer believes that nearly three-quarters of the contribution of risk in the portfolio "Default" will come from equity markets.
The study which advise on to manage climate change risks properly, "institutional investors must consider diversification of sources of danger and not to the entire traditional asset classes." this is an increasingly familiar is, of course, by analysis of so-called agent. For example, it is now common to view risk equity in terms of three factors which consisted of a broad market, style (growth vs. value) and betas size (uppercase). There, of course, many more factors to consider and new paper Mercer argues in favour of a risk analysis throughout the other dimension.
The practical effect, according to the Bible increases portfolio allocations TIP factors. An example: the study notes:
a typical portfolio seeking a return of 7% could manage the risk of climate change by approximately 40% of its assets are maintained in a climate-sensitive assets (this includes opportunities in a wide range of assets, including infrastructure, real estate, private equity, agriculture land, timberland and sustainable listed/unlisted assets). Some of these sensitive investment climate might traditionally be considered most at risk, on an autonomous basis, but it appears in the report you selected investments in climate-sensitive assets, with particular emphasis on those who can adapt to a low carbon environment, it may actually reduce risk portfolio in some scenarios.
Weekly review of the Stockcharters: views on the MIA
' Endless ' Rally end? Have the Stockcharters to add anything?
Robert New's TheInformedTrader looks for pullbacks when hitting 70. When such pullbacks find support when it reaches 50.
But when the alarm is strong, contusions RSI can remain expanded for weeks (and months).
2000 Russell will soon to highs of 2007.
No charts indexed by David Colletti, but lovers of breakouts will find something interesting in the list of graph (StockTradersHQ.com). Microsoft product activation (Grupo Financiero Gallicia s.a.) enjoys a great consolidation over $ 14.
Yong's Cobrasmarketview shows more Pan width is neutral decidely (and certainly not overboguht or toppish)
Yong engineering commercial model has struggled in recent falls.
Fund yields playing disables symmetrical triangle breakout-measured move destination even feature and a test of 40 test likely in the short term.
Richard Lehman from Channelist offers words of Wisdom/wisdom.
2/19--domestic shares, grows the balloon. Short-term trends remain completely intact, even after three months, with no correction. Small caps have groove back and large caps are back in the upper channel again long lines stochastic measures in upper limbs (i.e. overbought). The Fed Gets the entire country for a hot air balloon ride. You can have confidence that it knows how to land?
Elsewhere, China can quickly at the end of the bounce as we approached the line channels over the long-term, but gold is back on top of groove and oil (USO) is just starting to bounce.
Around the country, each Portfolio Manager is loaded with peeling now shares and try to get even more in their portfolios before the quarter ends next month. all thinking the same thing--ride the wave of Bernanke, but make sure you take before everyone else head for the exit. Sounds like a weak State?
2/11--Rise of the dollar hold gold and oil but doesn't seem to be able to bring stocks in the USA. However, others, such as China and India are not complete correction since November.
2/7--Large and small caps both accelerate upside on charts 5 min, but the large caps appear to have hit the lines on the hourlies. Stochastics in upper limbs and volatility is low. Strong position in rail, but technically, MAS shares are very extensive.
Also, USO hit the bottom line in the short term and is bouncing.
Has a chart that shows the Dow channel resistance (different from my take)
Michael Eckert of http://elliottwavetrendsandcharts.com offers a shrinking wedge with divergent technicals and a possible measured move EWT finish (integration-not a surge voltage).
A convergent coild playing also charted 60 minutes, S & P (this time a fifth wave over a wave trending)
Finally, Anthony Allyn of elliottwavehound.com also leads to a vertex 60 minutes in the S & P, but with a number of different wave.
Not quite what was said before the change.
from Declan Fallon (Fallond stock picks)
Back to top
you are here: home > articles > commentary > weekly review Stockcharters: views on the MIA
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Free stock pick for 02222011
Free stock pick for 02/22/2011
maintowoc Co Inc(MTW)-long
For other transactions parametropoiisewn negotiated plans and explanations chart using free trial and sign up for one of our services.
Ivica Juracich trading style explanation: click here
If you have any questions, don't hesitate to contact me.
Good luck trading today!
Ivica Juracic
XpertStockTrader.com
Jim Wyckoffs Morning Blog ReportFriday
Friday, 18 February--Jim Wyckoff's morning Web log
JIM'S IDEA OF IMERAS * MARKET
After posting gains on Thursday was the seed
in the context of selling pressure overnight. Negotiation has
Turned very granular vacation this week,
There are daily, even if the February Break can
It is above.--Jim
STOCK INDEXES
S & P 500 Futures: Bulls have solid near-total
Parliamentary technical advantage. The most short-term move
averages are daily early
today. The moving average 4-day is more than the 9-day.
The 9-day is over 18-day moving average.
Short-term voices
neutral to bearish early today. Today, the short-term
technical resistance comes at a high of Thursday
1,339.00 and then 1,350.00. Buy stops potential
located just above these levels. Downside support
for active traders today is on this week
low of 1,322.30, and then at last week's low of
1,306 2.10 sale stops are likely lying just under
These levels. Wyckoff's market intra-day rating:
4.5
NASDAQ futures index: Bulls have solid overall
short-term technical advantage. The short-term
Mobile average is daily early
today. The moving average 4-day is more than the 9-day
and 18-day. The average 9-day is over 18-day.
Short-term voices
bearish early today. Short-term technical
in this week's high is resistance
2,403.00 and then 2,415.00. Buy stops potential
located just above these levels. On The Downside,
Short-term support is seen at 2,379.75, and then in
This week's low of 2,370.75. It is possible to sell stops
located just below these planes. Within the Wyckoff-
Day market rating: 4.5
Dow Futures: Bulls have solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Sell stops are probably only
below the low support of 12,235 Thursday, and then
more stops directly beneath the support to small. Buy stops
resident likely just above technical resistance
Thursday's high 12,305 and subsequently 12,350.
The short-term mobile average is daily early
Today, as the moving average 4-day is more than 9;
on the day. The moving average 9-day is over 18-day
the moving average. Short-term provisions is bearish earlier today. The Wyckoff
Intra-day market rating: 4.5
U.S. INTEREST AND SIMEIWSEIS
March US T-Bonds: The short-term moving average
is neutral early today. The 4-day
the moving average is above the 9-day. 9-Day
under 18-day moving average. Provisions are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance is at the overnight high of 119
15/32 and then to a high of 119 this week 25/32.
Buy stops are probably just above these levels.
Short-term technical assistance in the
overnight low of 119 even then in 118 15/32.
Sell stops are probably located just below these levels.
Wyckoff's market within a day's rating: 4.5
MARCH US T-bonds
134 4/32-long life
124 19/32--100-day moving average
122 5/32--previous month high
120 10/32--second pivot point resistance
119 27/32--first pivot point resistance
119 25/32--previous day's high
119 13/32--previous day close
119 11/32--pivot point
119 9/32--18-day moving average
119 8/32--previous month low
119 2/32--moving average 4-day
118 28/32--first pivot point support
118 26/32-day low
118 14/32-9-day moving average
118 12/32--second pivot point support
116 26/32--low lifetime
March US T-Notes: The short-term moving average
is neutral early today. The 4-day
the moving average is above the 9-day. 9-Day
under 18-day moving average. Provisions are neutral to bullish early
today. Short-term resistance is against this week
high 119.07.5 and then 119.16.0. Buy stops
probably located just above these levels. The short-term
technical support is at the overnight low of
118.27.0, and then click 118.16.0. Sell stops potential
located just below these levels. Wyckoff's intra-day
Market rating: 4.5
MARCH US T-notes
127 7/32-long life
122 16/32-100-day moving average
121 15/32--previous month high
119 20/32--second pivot point resistance
119 12/32--18-day moving average
119 11/32--first pivot point resistance
119 7/32--previous day's high
119 4/32--previous month low
119 1/32--previous day close
118 29/32--pivot point
118 23/32--moving average 4-day
118 20/32--first pivot point support
118 17/32-9-day moving average
118 16/32-day low
118 6/32--second pivot point support
109 25/32--low lifetime
US DOLLAR INDEX
The u.s. dollar index are more stable in early March
trading today, certain cover short. Slow
Stochastics on the dollar index bearish is premature
today. The dollar index finds short-term
technical resistance in 78.50, and then the
week high of 78 98. Seems to be more short-term support
in this week's low of 77.99, and then, at 77.50.
The Wyckoff INTRA day market rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
In crude oil prices is slightly lower in early
trading today. Bears still have some downside
technical momentum on their side, like a third
Tap a fresh low 2.5-month. March crude, search
Buy stops are located just above this resistance
week high $ 86.63 and then at $ 87.00. Search for
sell stops just below technical support
overnight low $ 85.65, and then to $ 85.00.
Wyckoff's market within a day's rating: 4.5
GRANULES
Their prices were lower during a trading day, from a
corrective pullback from gains on Thursday. Not
serious damage chart yet, but have
choppy trading on highest price level is a
warning on short-term filling process.
Intrade contracts in the Middle East perspectives
Back to top
you are here: home > articles > economy > Intrade contracts in the Middle East perspectives
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Euro found additional support market
EUR/USD
The dollar strengthened during European trading on Friday with a short move near 1.3780, but it was possible to maintain the ex-ante and weak back under 1.3620. In contrast, in the previous session, the euro has found additional purchasing support at higher levels and pushed sharply higher to a peak of just over EUR 1.37 before consolidating weaker ahead of Monday's MAS holiday.
The euro was supported by comments from ECB Member Bini Smaghi, who said that the ECB would have to consider an early tightening policy if build inflationary pressures of the world. Markets had downloaded comments expectations of ESF aid following more balanced in its latest monthly interview and Bini-Smaghi's comments triggered some fresh increase speculation, although this impact is likely to be too thin conditions weekend long vacations.
There were further tensions in the Middle East and North Africa, with particular emphasis on Libya, while there were also some protests inside China. The dollar once again failed to draw any safe-haven support from the tensions, but will continue to have the potential profits if there is a steady flow of funds in emerging markets.
Within Germany, the Government suffered a heavy defeat in Hamburg local elections and this will keep the pressure on Albania to take a tough stance on the eurozone debt and bailouts. There were emergency financing facility on Friday for the second day running increased borrowing by the ECB. There were also reports that this may have been associated with solution downwards of two Irish banks, which will reduce the potential effects, but there will still be discomfort over the European banking sector that would pose significant risks.
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket analysis software
Call now and you will be given free recent forecasts
that are up to 86% accurate * 800-732-5407
If you have more recent forecasts sent to you, please go here
Yen
The dollar failed to make any impression on the yen against the Friday resistance over 83.50 and this fell down near 83.00 before finding some support.
G20 meetings did not have a significant market impact with members pledging to address global imbalances, but will not take definitive measures. On Friday, the Chinese Central Bank increased the commercial bank reserve requirements again with an increase to a record 19 2.5%. The impact on the market again was limited, but is likely to have some impact on defense demand Japanese currency.
Any further deterioration in conditions of risk also tends to support the yen, although the effects may be limited at this stage. Confidence in the underlying fundamentals of the Japanese will remain weak which would reduce the purchasing support and the dollar was little changed at trading subdued Monday.
Sterling
Sterling held steady ahead of retail release on Friday and then pushed higher monthly jump 1,9% of sales, even if December was revised to show a decrease of 1.4%. Sterling was unable to maintain an advance against the euro, but did result in a high rate of just over 1.6250 against the dollar as the unit of US remained defensive attitude.
There was a reported 3,1% increase in the House-price Rightmove UK for February, but this action auction values instead of sales prices and were further media reports that prices will decrease during the 2011 as fiscal tightening shall enter into force, mainly as mortgage data remains low. Interest rate speculation continues to be a very important market influence with the minutes of the Bank of England on Wednesday.
Underlying confidence in the economy of the UK is still likely to worsen in the coming weeks, which will provide an important test of Sterling Trust, especially if larger risk appetite has been eroded.
Swiss franc
The EUR advanced strongly to a high near 1.2990 against the franc Friday, but was unable to hold back gains and weakened under 1.2920. The dollar was blocked near 0.9550 and highs near 0.9430 crossover during OUR trading was the lowest level since early February.
Risk appetite conditions will continue to monitor closely and franc will gain some further support if intensify tensions around the Middle East. The Swiss currency is also likely to be regarded as final safe-haven currency, especially with large doubts surrounding the euro and US economies.
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket analysis software
Call now and you will be given free recent forecasts
that are up to 86% accurate * 800-732-5407
If you have more recent forecasts sent to you, please go here
Australian dollar
The Australian dollar has found support directly underneath 1.01 in the u.s. currency on Friday following a further increase of Chinese reserve requirements and pushed for high rate of just over 1.0150, such as the American currency came under greater pressure selling.
The Australian dollar was unable to capitalise on the move and weaker back into local crossover trading on Monday. Underlying risk appetite remained closer that hindered the currency and there will be considerable risks in currency if intensify tensions in emerging markets. There will also be additional risk instability if China needs further monetary steps.
Download your FREE recent Forecats "Market comment 14 Feb 18 Feb
Strategy: U.S. markets continued to develop excellent last week as investors continued to ignore the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the rate tightening in China and received the same. Sales-retail for previous month and some other economic indicators supported the increase. The market is hoping to put more weight than here.
Commentary the u.s. stocks closed for a week and a half years in fresh highs at the close of the week, extend streak to a third-straight week as the market has absorbed another round of tightening in China and some unrest in the Middle East.The average height of the Dow Jones industrial rose 0.96% this week, or another 118 points 12391.25. The S & P 500 provided from 1,0% to close 13.86 points 1343.01. Tech heavy Nasdaq composite closed 24.51 points higher with a gain of 0.9% to approximately 365.95.
Eight of the ten sectors advanced. Energy (+ 3.7%) led the way as oil gained 0.7%.
Between the revenue released this week, ConocoPhilips has 7% after increasing quarterly dividend 20% to $ 0.66 per share, adding $ 10 billion for share repurchase program and approving 13.5 billion dollars into forecasts.
FedEx issued a profit warning. But the stock managed to win the company mentioned in rough weather.
Dell brought together on the back of better than expected earnings results and guidance.Retail sales rose 0.3% in January against an anticipated consensus between + 0,5%. Excluding autos, also rose 0.3%, which was less than expected. However, the fact that retail sales rose now seven months in a row under the mantle of emotion.
The producer price index rose 0.8% in January against forecast a economists + 0,7% after a revised increase of 0.9% in December.
The figures for January left total PPI up 3.6% on-year and core PPI to 1,6%.
Year-on-year basis, total CPI moved up 1.6% and core CPI from 1.0% to 1.5% and 0.8%, respectively, in December.
Elsewhere, initial claims for 25,000 last week jumped to 410,000 against consensus estimate of 408,000.
The market moves in a shortened week activity next week, since Monday is a holiday.
In commodities, silver provided a 30 year high, well above $ 32 per gram. Gold also moved up in tandem.
The dollar index was at 77.05.
The week aheadMonday MAS holiday consumer confidence level Tuesday February Wednesday existing home sales for January Thursday the jobless claims for the last week of new home sales for manufacture in January consumer sentiment for February GDP projection for Q4.. . thanks for the confidence you have shown in me and my business.
from Larry Swing
Larry@mrswing.com
May be the swing with you ...
For certain products, reduced prices
Photographic equipment, SuppliesNonprescription medical supplies
Increasing food and energy prices have a lot of media attention recently, along with concerns about the threat of inflation. The chart above (using BLS UNDER CONSIDERATION data from Economagic) shows a sample of products which have undergone deflation during the last year (January 2010-January 2011). One reason that we don't pay much attention to these reductions in the prices is probably that happened so gradually and consistently over time, so we either: (a)) does not look up the fall in prices, or b) receives this grant and do not appreciate the incredible time savings on many of the products we buy everything. There are many, many products such as computers, cameras, new cars, clothing, TVs, appliances, electronics, software, etc., which are significantly cheaper today than a year ago, and is probably cheaper today than five years ago, ten years, in many cases.
Or, perhaps it is also because we buy computers, TVs, appliances, new cars RARELY (5 per year or more in some cases), and no notice or appreciate the price reductions is changing the way that we can see prices for food and fuel purchases OFTEN? But it seems to be a certain degree of misperception between citizens and the resources under all values, which is clearly the case. And given that the definition of inflation is a time when increased an average of all values (including salaries), I think we are anywhere near falling within this definition. Not as many values, not increasing.
Back to top
you are here: home > articles > economy > for some products, reduced prices
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Weekly market commentary: Breakout Nasdaq
It was another good week for bulls. Nasdaq was able eventually to break above resistance-2,818 virtualizes new support.
NASDAQ
via StockCharts.com
Nasdaq 100 continued to add breakout. Went well above and beyond the closest support and some 300 points a measured move. Can this be 2,700?
($ NDX)
via StockCharts.com
However, the daily rates are in overbought levels of Nasdaq. There are a lot of new stocks available for the support of the Acropolis.
($ BPCOMPQ)
via StockCharts.com
The most obvious, the percentage of Nasdaq stocks above 50-day MA bearish divergence. The peak in the low 60s from 2009 the percentage of Nasdaq stocks above 50-day MA is downwards at 63%. When it drops below 50% rapid reductions in market often as a result.
($ NAA50R)
via StockCharts.com
Small caps added a second week. Pulling off the flag bull continues to gain daily mobility.
($ RUT)
via StockCharts.com
The S & P were sufficiently good to add a percentage for the week.
($ SPX)
via StockCharts.com
The same bearish divergence play in market Nasdaq S & P. Summation index NYSE is just shy of resistance. Although a trigger ' buy ' was created with the support of MACD.
($ NYSI)
via StockCharts.com
And 89% can't get more daily S & P daily rates.
($ BPSPX)
via StockCharts.com
Acropolis is still very much in the game. While it is difficult to expect every week to be a winner who is going to be a tough Rally to break. Bearish divergences in supporting market range suggests a correction is likely to occur rather sooner rather than later. But this correction is unlikely to bring the wider trend higher. Cyclical bull market continues ...
Median CPI Inflation below 1 for 12th month
Earlier today, the BLS UNDER CONSIDERATION mentioned that seasonal CPI for all urban consumers was up by 0.4% in January. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% in January. During the last 12 months, the median CPI Inflation was 0.8%, compared with CPI inflation was 1.6% (see diagram above).
According to the Fed Cleveland:
"Federal Reserve policymakers is always hungry for inflation (i.e., a general price increase), and use various measures to measure inflation trends. Such a measure is the consumer price index (CPI) published by the BLS UNDER CONSIDERATION.
The CPI measures the changes in the prices of a number of goods and services for things like gas, rent, groceries and clothing. However, the prices of some items, including food and energy are volatile. can change a lot from month to month, based on supply and demand. The BLS UNDER CONSIDERATION also publishes a measure which excludes prices core food and energy prices. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Ohio State University has a different way to get a core CPI measure or measure of the underlying trend of inflation. Called the median CPI.
To calculate the median CPI, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland examines the cost of products or services published by BLS UNDER CONSIDERATION. But rather than by calculating a weighted average of all values, such as the BLS UNDER CONSIDERATION, the Fed Cleveland examines the median price change or a change in the price, whereas the right in the middle of the long list of all changes in prices. According to a survey by the Fed Cleveland, the median CPI provides a better signal from the evolution of inflation by CPI all items either the CPI excluding food and energy. " (emphasis)
MP: Historically, median CPI is 50% greater accuracy in measuring future inflation from the traditional CPI (based on the Boston Fed research) and the median CPI no longer displays the early signs of inflationary pressures. Although the median CPI inflation increased to 0.8% in January from 0,6% in December, was less than 1% per month since last January, which is the lowest inflation in twelve-month period in history the median CPI index back in 1984 (see diagram).
Back to top
you are here: home > articles > economy > median CPI Inflation below 1% for the twelfth month
Refineries is the new Cloud Computing or social networking stocks
It is interesting how the overall market is not going Parabolic (unlike is slow and steady as you go), but will Parabolic different areas within the market. I have not seen this refiners from 07 perhaps late or early 08. There is something called a crack spread which is essentially a difference between inflows (crude oil) and displays (oil refining), and based on how to move these stocks, I suppose this should wind. The red line below the 20 day moving average-they act as JDS Uniphase. preparing for or ... 30% more than on the day of 20 for a refiner? Holy Bernank.
Back to top
you are here: home > articles > collections > refiners stock is the new Cloud Computing or social ...
Energy market commentary from Jim Wyckoff
ENeRGEIAS: March crude oil closed up $ 1.37 to $ 86.36 in
barrel today. Prices closed near session high today
for short coverage and some renewed tensions in the Middle East.
Still, some short-term chart has been losses in
crude oil this week. The next near-term upside price
BREAKOUT target bulls generates a close
This solid technical resistance at $ 88.00 a barrel. The
next near-term downside price breakout goal
carry crude oil is to produce a close below solid
technical support in this week's low of $ 83.85. First
resistance is visible in the $ 87.00, and then in $ 87.50. First
support is seen at $ 86.00, and then to $ 85.50. The Wyckoff
Market rating: 5.5.
March oil heating, closed 413 points in $ 2.7335
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today about
get the profit. Bulls still have overall near-term
technical advantage. However, the technical fault
recently, crude oil futures prices are bearish the foreboding
for heating oil. Bulls Next upside breakout price
The aim is closing values above solid technical
resistance to a high of $ 2.8041 Convention February.
Bears next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below the solid technical support
week low of $ 2.6680. Initial resistance is at $ 7,500.
and then in today's high of $ 2.14,576. This is the first support
seen in today's low of $ 2.7252, and then in $ 2.7.
Wyckoff's market rating: 7.0.
March unleaded petrol, closed 159 points
$ 2.5225. Prices closed near session low today about
profits but did visits high fresh contract early
today. Bulls are still solid overall near-term
technical advantage. However, the technical fault
the price of crude oil recently do not bode well for the
bull market for gasoline. The next upside breakout price
aim for the bulls are closing prices over solid
technical resistance at $ 2.6000. Next downside bear»
price breakout aim is closing down from solid values
support in last week's low of $ 2.4238. First resistance
dealt with in the present contract high $ 2.5873 and subsequently
$ 2.5750. First support is at $ 2.5000, and then in
$ 2.4850. Wyckoff's market rating: 7,5.
March gas closed down 5.5 cents to $ 3,023 today.
Values close to session closed low today and hit a
fresh contract low. Bears have solid overall near-
term general technical advantage. The next upside price
BREAKOUT aim for bulls are above closing prices
solid technical resistance at $ 4.10. The next downside
price breakout goal bears are closing prices
bottom of solid technical support at $ 3.75. First resistance
seen in today's high of $ 2,405 and then to $ 4.00.
First support is considered during today's low of $ 3825 Convention
and then to $ 3,80. Wyckoff's market rating: 1.5.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Intrade odds for Ghaddafi jump as he escapes
Intrade odds for Muammar al-Gaddafi as leader of Libya since December 2011 just shot up to 79% (see diagram above), as new reports say leave it in Venezuela.
Back to top
you are here: home > articles > economy > Intrade odds for Ghaddafi jump as he escapes
Popular Posts
-
From Milwaukee Sentinel journal: ...The statement was in response to joined cases a statement earlier on Saturday by [State Senator] Erpenb...
-
It was another good week for bulls. Nasdaq was able eventually to break above resistance-2,818 virtualizes new support. NASDAQ via StockCha...
-
ENeRGEIAS: March crude oil closed up $ 1.37 to $ 86.36 in barrel today. Prices closed near session high today for short coverage and some r...
-
you are here: home > articles > economy > unsustainable College Handbook "Angus" bubble Kevin Grier notes that Greg Man...
-
From the Wis. legislation imposing "regrets" endorser Walker, Thousands protest at Capitol, "Channel 3000: [Executive Board ...
-
General Motors (GM) and Ford (f) have very different structures nearby chart with GM exhibit a more constructive near term pattern from For...
-
Dow Jones industrial average 17 June Opening: 11962.66 High: 89 12072. Low: 11962.51 Close: 12004.36 Changed: + 42.84 (payroll employees%) ...
